| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win selected | 72.6% | 68% | +4.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 75.8% | 24.1% |
| logistic | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Elise Mertens | Maja Chwalinska | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1735 | 1582 |
| Surface Elo | 1735 | 1582 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 26 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Maja Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Naomi Osaka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Maria Timofeeva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Kaitlin Quevedo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Diane Parry | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Rebecca Sramkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Leylah Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Oleksandra Oliynykova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Rebecca Sramkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | Maja Chwalinska |
| 24 May 2026 | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | Maja Chwalinska |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |