| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.9% | 74% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| logistic | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1640 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1640 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Thiago Cigarran | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Cigarran | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | Miguel Tobon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |