OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-02
⚽ Spain Primera Federacion · Friday 02 October 2026, 19:15 UTC · finished
Real Madrid 1.80 3 - 2 2.40 Atlético Madrid
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 51.1%61%-9.5%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 76.1%87%-10.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 67.5%79%-11.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 47.2%45%+1.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 53.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson52.6%23.7%23.7%
xgboost46.0%28.1%26.0%
logistic56.9%23.8%19.4%
Inputs the models saw
Real MadridAtlético Madrid
Elo (pre-match)18411759
Surface Elo18411759
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.802.40
Form trend0.30-0.30
Season points per game0.500.50
Season goals for / game1.000.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days1212
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 4 D
Real Madrid: last 5
27 SepHAlcorcon1 - 2L
27 SepAAtlético Madrid0 - 2L
23 SepAUE Sant Andreu1 - 1D
20 SepAAtlético Madrid1 - 2L
15 SepAElche3 - 2W
Atlético Madrid: last 5
27 SepHReal Madrid2 - 0W
25 SepHVillarreal CF B1 - 3L
20 SepHReal Madrid2 - 1W
19 SepAHuesca0 - 0D
16 SepHOsasuna4 - 0W
Head to head
27 Sep 2026Atlético Madrid2 - 0Real Madrid
20 Sep 2026Atlético Madrid2 - 1Real Madrid
22 Mar 2026Real Madrid3 - 2Atlético Madrid
27 Sep 2025Atlético Madrid5 - 2Real Madrid
08 Feb 2025Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
29 Sep 2024Atlético Madrid1 - 1Real Madrid
04 Feb 2024Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
24 Sep 2023Atlético Madrid3 - 1Real Madrid
25 Feb 2023Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
18 Sep 2022Atlético Madrid1 - 2Real Madrid
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.2023.8%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8026.3%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6759.9%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5664.1%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%02 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:22 UTC