| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win selected | 68.1% | 53% | +15.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 36.5% | 63.4% |
| logistic | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1634 | 1750 |
| Surface Elo | 1634 | 1750 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 25 | 25 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Arthur Rinderknech | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | A | Marin Cilic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Luca Van Assche | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Jesper De Jong | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Alexei Popyrin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | Sho Shimabukuro |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Hugo Gaston | 3 - 0 | Sho Shimabukuro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.85 | 54.0% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Sep 06:15 |