OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ 2. Bundesliga · Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
St Pauli 1.20 2 - 0 0.40 Karlsruhe
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.6%59%-8.2%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 77.3%84%-6.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 67.5%76%-9.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.2%69%-11.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.2%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.0%22.8%22.2%
xgboost47.3%29.9%22.8%
logistic42.0%29.8%28.2%
Inputs the models saw
St PauliKarlsruhe
Elo (pre-match)14651415
Surface Elo14651415
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.40
Form trend-0.300.20
Season points per game1.170.83
Season goals for / game1.331.00
Season goals against / game1.332.00
Rest days2122
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W2 W · 5 D
St Pauli: last 5
03 OctHBorussia M´gladbach1 - 1D
20 SepACottbus1 - 1D
20 SepACottbus1 - 1D
12 SepHWolfsburg1 - 0W
04 SepABielefeld2 - 2D
Karlsruhe: last 5
19 SepHNurnberg0 - 1L
13 SepHCottbus0 - 3L
04 SepAHannover2 - 2D
29 AugHWolfsburg2 - 5L
15 AugAKaiserslautern0 - 0D
Head to head
06 Apr 2024Karlsruhe2 - 1St Pauli
28 Oct 2023St Pauli2 - 1Karlsruhe
28 May 2023St Pauli1 - 1Karlsruhe
12 Nov 2022Karlsruhe4 - 4St Pauli
05 Mar 2022St Pauli3 - 1Karlsruhe
25 Sep 2021Karlsruhe1 - 3St Pauli
06 Mar 2021Karlsruhe0 - 0St Pauli
08 Nov 2020St Pauli0 - 3Karlsruhe
30 May 2020Karlsruhe1 - 1St Pauli
02 Nov 2019St Pauli2 - 2Karlsruhe
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.3323.1%11 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2draw4.0025.0%11 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2home1.6759.9%11 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%11 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3542.5%11 Oct 12:30
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC