| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| logistic | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Arthur Fils | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2090 | 2039 |
| Surface Elo | 2090 | 2039 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Kei Nishikori | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Kei Nishikori | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Alex Michelsen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Oct 2026 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 0 | Frances Tiafoe |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 1 | Frances Tiafoe |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 1 | Frances Tiafoe |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||