OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-20
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Sunday 20 September 2026, 15:30 UTC · finished
Fulham 0.80 1 - 1 1.40 Manchester United
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 61.5%50%+11.5%✗ miss
DCHome or away 85.9%79%+7.3%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 71.1%67%+4.4%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 52.5%64%-11.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 50.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson34.3%27.3%38.4%
xgboost35.4%20.8%43.7%
logistic26.6%27.1%46.3%
Inputs the models saw
FulhamManchester United
Elo (pre-match)16611798
Surface Elo16611798
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.40
Form trend0.400.50
Season points per game0.251.00
Season goals for / game1.001.75
Season goals against / game1.751.75
Rest days86
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W7 W · 2 D
Fulham: last 5
12 SepALiverpool0 - 0D
05 SepHCrystal Palace2 - 3L
30 AugASunderland0 - 1L
24 AugHChelsea2 - 3L
24 MayHNewcastle2 - 0W
Manchester United: last 5
19 SepHOssett United4 - 1W
13 SepHManchester City0 - 1L
06 SepAEverton2 - 2D
30 AugHIpswich5 - 2W
22 AugAHull0 - 2L
Head to head
01 Feb 2026Manchester United3 - 2Fulham
24 Aug 2025Fulham1 - 1Manchester United
26 Jan 2025Fulham0 - 1Manchester United
16 Aug 2024Manchester United1 - 0Fulham
24 Feb 2024Manchester United1 - 2Fulham
04 Nov 2023Fulham0 - 1Manchester United
28 May 2023Manchester United2 - 1Fulham
13 Nov 2022Fulham1 - 2Manchester United
18 May 2021Manchester United1 - 1Fulham
20 Jan 2021Fulham1 - 2Manchester United
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.0050.0%20 Sep 16:30
Bet3651X2draw3.8026.3%20 Sep 16:30
Bet3651X2home3.6027.8%20 Sep 16:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6261.7%20 Sep 16:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3043.5%20 Sep 16:30
Generated 2026-10-30 19:26 UTC