| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.5% | 45% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| logistic | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| James Duckworth | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1788 | 1742 |
| Surface Elo | 1788 | 1742 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 22 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Yibing Wu | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Arthur Fery | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 3 | L |
| 27 Aug | A | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep 2026 | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | Lorenzo Sonego |
| 27 Aug 2026 | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Sonego |
| 20 Jun 2022 | James Duckworth | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Sonego |
| 28 Jun 2021 | James Duckworth | 0 - 3 | Lorenzo Sonego |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.71 | 58.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |