OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-22
⚽ England EFL Trophy · Tuesday 22 September 2026, 18:00 UTC · finished
Swindon 1.20 0 - 2 0.60 Newport County
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 58.6%54%+4.5%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 81.9%82%+0.0%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 74.4%73%+1.5%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 46.3%56%-9.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 46.8%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson57.0%22.3%20.6%
xgboost43.7%29.8%26.5%
logistic48.6%26.4%25.0%
Inputs the models saw
SwindonNewport County
Elo (pre-match)14521342
Surface Elo14521342
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.60
Form trend0.30-0.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W3 W · 0 D
Swindon: last 5
19 SepASalford0 - 1L
19 SepASalford0 - 1L
12 SepAYork0 - 4L
05 SepHColchester3 - 1W
01 SepHPort Vale3 - 1W
Newport County: last 5
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
12 SepHFleetwood Town1 - 1D
05 SepANorthampton0 - 1L
01 SepASalford1 - 2L
Head to head
11 Feb 2026Swindon2 - 0Newport County
04 Oct 2025Newport County0 - 1Swindon
24 Jan 2025Newport County1 - 2Swindon
14 Sep 2024Swindon4 - 0Newport County
03 Feb 2024Newport County2 - 1Swindon
14 Oct 2023Swindon2 - 0Newport County
04 Feb 2023Newport County2 - 1Swindon
04 Oct 2022Swindon1 - 0Newport County
09 Apr 2022Swindon0 - 1Newport County
20 Nov 2021Newport County1 - 2Swindon
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.9025.6%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6027.8%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8554.0%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8055.6%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9850.5%22 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:25 UTC