| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.7% | 44% | +3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 81% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.4% | 60% | +2.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 61% | +5.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.1% | 24.1% | 30.8% |
| xgboost | 42.4% | 27.1% | 30.5% |
| logistic | 45.1% | 26.4% | 28.5% |
| Tamworth | Sutton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1408 | 1408 |
| Surface Elo | 1408 | 1408 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Aldershot | 1 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Aldershot | 1 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Southend | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Forest Green | 3 - 3 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Forest Green | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Halifax | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Halifax | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Sep | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | Sutton |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Sutton | 2 - 3 | Tamworth |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Sutton | 1 - 2 | Tamworth |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Tamworth | 1 - 1 | Sutton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |