| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.1% | 56% | +3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.2% | 82% | +1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.5% | 74% | +3.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 60% | +1.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.3% | 27.2% | 18.5% |
| xgboost | 73.0% | 16.6% | 10.3% |
| logistic | 67.0% | 22.2% | 10.8% |
| Cambridge | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1549 | 1279 |
| Surface Elo | 1549 | 1279 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 10 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 26 Sep | H | AFC Wimbledon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | AFC Wimbledon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | Gillingham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Rotherham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rotherham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Newport County | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | Northampton |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Northampton | 0 - 0 | Cambridge |
| 09 Mar 2024 | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | Northampton |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Northampton | 2 - 1 | Cambridge |
| 26 Oct 2019 | Northampton | 2 - 0 | Cambridge |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Cambridge | 3 - 2 | Northampton |
| 18 Aug 2018 | Northampton | 2 - 2 | Cambridge |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |