| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 80.3% | 90% | -9.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| logistic | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| Arthur Fils | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2076 | 1755 |
| Surface Elo | 2076 | 1755 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 6 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Pavel Kotov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Valentin Vacherot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Damm Jr, Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 0 | Pavel Kotov |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 0 | Pavel Kotov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.25 | 13.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.11 | 90.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |