| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.4% | 40% | +7.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.0% | 77% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.2% | 53% | +7.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 68% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.6% | 24.6% | 23.7% |
| xgboost | 34.5% | 24.4% | 41.1% |
| logistic | 39.7% | 29.3% | 31.0% |
| Elversberg | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1632 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1632 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bayern München | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 Oct | H | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Werder Bremen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.72 | 36.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.86 | 25.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.54 | 39.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.49 | 67.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |