OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-10

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:10 UTC · scheduled

Sebastian Baez 0.60 11:10 1.20 Valentin Vacherot

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	64.1%	78%	-13.4%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	20.4%	79.6%
logistic	45.1%	54.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Sebastian Baez	Valentin Vacherot
Elo (pre-match)	1761	1826
Surface Elo	1761	1826
Form, last 5 (PPG)	0.60	1.20
Form trend	-0.60	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	5
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Sebastian Baez: last 5

10 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	0 - 2	L
08 Oct	A	Marcos Giron	2 - 1	W
08 Oct	A	Marcos Giron	2 - 1	W
01 Oct	A	Juncheng Shang	1 - 2	L
01 Oct	A	Juncheng Shang	1 - 2	L

Valentin Vacherot: last 5

10 Oct	A	Sebastian Baez	2 - 0	W
05 Oct	A	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	L
05 Oct	A	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	L
04 Oct	H	Arthur Fils	2 - 1	W
04 Oct	A	Arthur Fils	2 - 1	W

Head to head

10 Oct 2026

Sebastian Baez

0 - 2

Valentin Vacherot

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.65	27.4%	10 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.29	77.5%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.75	26.7%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Sebastian Baez	4.20	23.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Sebastian Baez	4.30	23.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Valentin Vacherot	1.32	75.8%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.83	26.1%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.70	27.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.70	27.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.50	28.6%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Sebastian Baez	4.20	23.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Sebastian Baez	4.30	23.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Valentin Vacherot	1.32	75.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.70	27.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.95	25.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.29	77.5%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.30	30.3%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.25	80.0%	10 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.29	77.5%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.75	26.7%	10 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.25	80.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.50	28.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.50	28.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.29	77.5%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.80	26.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.30	76.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Sebastian Baez	3.65	27.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	1.28	78.1%	10 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC