| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 52% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| logistic | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1819 | 1786 |
| Surface Elo | 1819 | 1786 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 May 2024 | Luciano Darderi | 2 - 1 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 21 Mar 2022 | Luciano Darderi | 1 - 2 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.91 | 52.4% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |