| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.8% | 18% | +28.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 85% | -9.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.9% | 23% | +35.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 69% | -11.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.5% | 25.1% | 49.3% |
| xgboost | 39.7% | 27.6% | 32.6% |
| logistic | 35.5% | 29.2% | 35.3% |
| Scunthorpe | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1406 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1406 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Fylde | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Fylde | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Brentford | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.60 | 17.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |