| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.8% | 45% | -0.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 80% | -5.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.1% | 61% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 64% | -7.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.2% | 25.0% | 30.7% |
| xgboost | 36.2% | 23.3% | 40.5% |
| logistic | 33.8% | 29.1% | 37.1% |
| Hartlepool | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1386 | 1421 |
| Surface Elo | 1386 | 1421 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 3 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Harrogate | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Harrogate | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Scunthorpe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Scunthorpe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Worthing | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Aldershot | 1 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Aldershot | 1 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Tamworth | 1 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Hartlepool | 1 - 1 | Tamworth |
| 11 Feb 2025 | Hartlepool | 2 - 2 | Tamworth |
| 20 Aug 2024 | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |