| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 54% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| logistic | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Felix Gill | Jay Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1620 | 1547 |
| Surface Elo | 1620 | 1547 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 05 Nov | H | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Marcus Walters | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Filip Misolic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Filip Misolic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Nov | H | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Federico Bondioli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Gabriele Piraino | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Jay Clarke | 2 - 1 | Felix Gill |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Felix Gill | 1 - 2 | Jay Clarke |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.88 | 53.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |