| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 78.0% | 88% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 86.7% | 13.2% |
| logistic | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Sergio Callejon Hernando | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1402 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1402 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.14 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Thiago Agustin Pernas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Carrascosa Diaz, Maxi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Matisse Bobichon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Ziga Sesko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Diogo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Rahmani, Kasra | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Fares Zakaria | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Jan Hrazdil | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 May | A | Henri Squire | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Aug | H | Pavlos Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.13 | 88.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |