| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 81.3% | 76% | +5.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.3% | 23.6% |
| logistic | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| Kilian Feldbausch | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1671 | 1459 |
| Surface Elo | 1671 | 1459 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.09 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.89 | 1.27 |
| Rest days | 3 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Nov | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Sumit Nagal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Raul Brancaccio | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Peter Makk | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Filiberto Fumagalli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 11 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 11 Nov 06:15 |