OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Brighton 2.00 5 - 0 1.40 Crystal Palace
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 57.5%65%-7.9%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 83.6%87%-3.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 77.3%82%-5.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 64.6%64%+0.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson53.7%24.7%21.6%
xgboost61.8%21.3%16.9%
logistic65.3%22.8%11.9%
Inputs the models saw
BrightonCrystal Palace
Elo (pre-match)17791674
Surface Elo17791674
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend-0.80-0.40
Season points per game2.171.17
Season goals for / game3.001.50
Season goals against / game0.832.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W3 W · 5 D
Brighton: last 5
15 OctHFK Kauno Zalgiris4 - 0W
10 OctASunderland2 - 0W
10 OctASunderland2 - 0W
19 SepHArsenal3 - 0W
13 SepACoventry5 - 0W
Crystal Palace: last 5
15 OctALyon2 - 3L
11 OctHNottingham Forest3 - 1W
11 OctHNottingham Forest3 - 1W
22 SepAPlymouth1 - 5L
20 SepALeeds0 - 0D
Head to head
08 Feb 2026Brighton0 - 1Crystal Palace
09 Nov 2025Crystal Palace0 - 0Brighton
05 Apr 2025Crystal Palace2 - 1Brighton
15 Dec 2024Brighton1 - 3Crystal Palace
03 Feb 2024Brighton4 - 1Crystal Palace
21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1 - 1Brighton
15 Mar 2023Brighton1 - 0Crystal Palace
11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace1 - 1Brighton
14 Jan 2022Brighton1 - 1Crystal Palace
27 Sep 2021Crystal Palace1 - 1Brighton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away7.0014.3%18 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2draw4.7521.1%18 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2home1.4469.4%18 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%18 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.5040.0%18 Oct 14:00
SportyBet1X2away6.3215.8%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.9920.0%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5166.2%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5464.9%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.5539.2%18 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC