| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.2% | 61% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 78.3% | 82% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.5% | 78% | -8.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 67% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.1% | 24.8% | 18.1% |
| xgboost | 42.4% | 19.0% | 38.6% |
| logistic | 59.3% | 25.7% | 15.0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1484 | 1337 |
| Surface Elo | 1484 | 1337 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.63 | 0.88 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 2.88 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Volendam | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 3 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | BVV Barendrecht | 2 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Hoek | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Utrecht | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Utrecht | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | For Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Fortuna Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Ajax | 1 - 5 | L |
| 02 Mar 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 0 | Willem II |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Willem II | 1 - 2 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 - 0 | Willem II |
| 06 Nov 2021 | Willem II | 0 - 3 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 28 Feb 2021 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 - 2 | Willem II |
| 13 Dec 2020 | Willem II | 1 - 3 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Willem II | 4 - 0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 04 Feb 2018 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 - 0 | Willem II |
| 18 Nov 2017 | Willem II | 2 - 2 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 17 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 17 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 17 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 17 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 17 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.82 | 20.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.51 | 22.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |