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Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-23

NFL · Friday 23 October 2026, 00:15 UTC · finished

Chicago Bears – 30 - 24 – New England Patriots

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	53.6%	62%	-8.5%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	53.6%	46.4%

Inputs the models saw

	Chicago Bears	New England Patriots
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.10
form diff	0.00
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	0.20
opponent strength diff	-0.08
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-22T00:15:00+00:00

Chicago Bears: last 5

18 Oct	A	Atlanta Falcons	31 - 23	W
11 Oct	A	Green Bay Packers	7 - 31	L
04 Oct	H	New York Jets	23 - 12	W
29 Sep	H	Philadelphia Eagles	27 - 7	W
20 Sep	H	Minnesota Vikings	3 - 9	L

New England Patriots: last 5

18 Oct	H	New York Jets	26 - 19	W
11 Oct	H	Las Vegas Raiders	45 - 17	W
04 Oct	A	Buffalo Bills	29 - 26	W
27 Sep	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	6 - 35	L
20 Sep	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	20 - 3	W

Head to head

10 Nov 2024	Chicago Bears	3 - 19	New England Patriots
25 Oct 2022	New England Patriots	14 - 33	Chicago Bears
21 Oct 2018	Chicago Bears	31 - 38	New England Patriots
26 Oct 2014	New England Patriots	51 - 23	Chicago Bears
12 Dec 2010	Chicago Bears	7 - 36	New England Patriots
26 Nov 2006	New England Patriots	17 - 13	Chicago Bears
10 Nov 2002	Chicago Bears	30 - 33	New England Patriots
10 Dec 2000	Chicago Bears	24 - 17	New England Patriots

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.65	60.6%	22 Oct 20:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.40	41.7%	22 Oct 20:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC