| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.4% | 63% | -11.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 83% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.5% | 82% | -15.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 60% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.0% | 20.3% | 21.7% |
| xgboost | 48.2% | 21.6% | 30.2% |
| logistic | 50.8% | 25.3% | 23.9% |
| Harrogate | Hornchurch | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1415 | 1490 |
| Surface Elo | 1415 | 1490 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.64 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.27 | 1.18 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Eastleigh | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Eastleigh | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 4 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Altrincham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Altrincham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.10 | 19.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |