| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 79.6% | 81% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| logistic | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Coleman Wong | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1939 | 1732 |
| Surface Elo | 1939 | 1732 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | A | Coleman Wong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Arthur Rinderknech | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Zhizhen Zhang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Zhizhen Zhang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Coleman Wong | 1 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 27 Sep 06:15 |