| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.6% | 63% | -9.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.1% | 91% | -11.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.7% | 85% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 50% | +6.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.6% | 27.1% | 33.4% |
| xgboost | 59.7% | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| logistic | 60.6% | 30.9% | 8.6% |
| Spezia | Livorno | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1388 | 1275 |
| Surface Elo | 1388 | 1275 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 172 | 2279 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Latina Calcio | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Napoli | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Ravenna FC 1913 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | AS Gubbio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | SS Monopoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | US Sambenedettese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | US Grosseto | 4 - 4 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Forli FC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Pescara | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | US Pianese | 3 - 2 | W |
| 13 Jul 2020 | Livorno | 0 - 1 | Spezia |
| 07 Dec 2019 | Spezia | 2 - 0 | Livorno |
| 27 Feb 2019 | Spezia | 3 - 0 | Livorno |
| 07 Oct 2018 | Livorno | 1 - 3 | Spezia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.70 | 17.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.99 | 50.2% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.70 | 58.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |