| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.1% | 48% | +16.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 86.7% | 76% | +10.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 80.2% | 66% | +14.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 51% | +0.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 47.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.2% | 29.0% | 43.8% |
| xgboost | 20.6% | 26.1% | 53.3% |
| logistic | 23.8% | 27.0% | 49.2% |
| Nice | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1567 | 1796 |
| Surface Elo | 1567 | 1796 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Auxerre | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Le Mans | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Paris FC | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Lorient | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 May | H | Metz | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Troyes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | A | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Angers | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | H | Auxerre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Lille | 0 - 0 | Nice |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Nice | 2 - 0 | Lille |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Lille | 2 - 1 | Nice |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Nice | 2 - 2 | Lille |
| 19 May 2024 | Lille | 2 - 2 | Nice |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Nice | 1 - 1 | Lille |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Nice | 1 - 0 | Lille |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Lille | 1 - 2 | Nice |
| 14 May 2022 | Nice | 1 - 3 | Lille |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Lille | 0 - 4 | Nice |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.13 | 46.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.65 | 27.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.62 | 27.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 20 Sep 06:16 |