| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.9% | 62% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| logistic | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Patrick Maloney | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1481 | 1521 |
| Surface Elo | 1481 | 1521 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Michael Mmoh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Michael Mmoh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Ozan Baris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 1 | Patrick Maloney |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 23 Sep 06:15 |