OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Colchester 0.60 0 - 0 1.40 Exeter
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.6%48%-2.6%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 73.5%78%-4.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 60.2%66%-6.3%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 61.2%55%+6.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 56.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson35.2%35.7%29.1%
xgboost40.5%29.7%29.8%
logistic40.6%29.7%29.7%
Inputs the models saw
ColchesterExeter
Elo (pre-match)14271424
Surface Elo14271424
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.601.40
Form trend0.00-0.80
Season points per game1.111.20
Season goals for / game1.110.60
Season goals against / game1.440.60
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Colchester: last 5
10 OctANewport County0 - 1L
10 OctANewport County0 - 1L
03 OctHLuton1 - 1D
26 SepAShrewsbury2 - 2D
26 SepAShrewsbury2 - 2D
Exeter: last 5
10 OctAShrewsbury1 - 0W
10 OctAShrewsbury1 - 0W
06 OctHOxford2 - 2D
03 OctHRotherham1 - 0W
03 OctHRotherham1 - 0W
Head to head
15 Apr 2022Exeter2 - 0Colchester
23 Nov 2021Colchester3 - 1Exeter
23 Feb 2021Colchester1 - 2Exeter
24 Nov 2020Exeter6 - 1Colchester
25 Jan 2020Exeter0 - 0Colchester
29 Dec 2019Colchester2 - 2Exeter
16 Mar 2019Exeter3 - 0Colchester
24 Nov 2018Colchester1 - 1Exeter
05 May 2018Exeter1 - 0Colchester
09 Dec 2017Colchester3 - 1Exeter
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.2530.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.2031.2%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.2045.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.1047.6%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.7058.8%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.4029.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1047.6%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0050.0%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7856.2%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:58 UTC