| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.4% | 53% | +4.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.2% | 46.7% |
| logistic | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Jakub Paul | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1561 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1561 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 202 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Mar | A | Alexandre Muller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Feb | H | Laurent Lokoli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Justin Engel | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Aug | H | Stuart Parker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Niels Visker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Cado, Zaccharie | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Cezar Cretu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.87 | 53.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.87 | 53.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |