| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.9% | 53% | -10.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 79% | -4.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.3% | 72% | -16.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 53% | -2.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.9% | 25.1% | 25.0% |
| xgboost | 36.7% | 30.5% | 32.8% |
| logistic | 28.6% | 29.5% | 41.9% |
| Cadiz | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1334 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1334 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.30 | 2.20 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Granada | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Granada | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Sporting Gijon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Sp Gijon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Leganes | 4 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Oviedo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Real Oviedo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Sabadell | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Sabadell | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Ceuta | 2 - 1 | Cadiz |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Cadiz | 0 - 0 | Ceuta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 25 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 25 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 25 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 25 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 25 Oct 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.92 | 52.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.86 | 53.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |