| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.3% | 69% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| logistic | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| Carlos Taberner | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1612 | 1571 |
| Surface Elo | 1612 | 1571 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Campana Lee, Gerard | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Yanaki Milev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Gabriele Piraino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Aug | A | Adrian Andreev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | Petr Nesterov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 22 Sep 06:15 |