| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 60% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| logistic | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Abdullah Shelbayh | Mitchell Krueger | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1585 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1585 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Aidan Mayo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Daniil Ostapenkov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Li Tu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Keegan Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Tyler Zink | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Keegan Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | Mitchell Krueger |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 03 Oct 06:15 |