| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.9% | 72% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.1% | 76.8% |
| logistic | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1752 | 1972 |
| Surface Elo | 1752 | 1972 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 2.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.89 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.22 | 0.63 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Mikhail Kukushkin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Mikhail Kukushkin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| 03 Jan 2022 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 1 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| 04 Oct 2021 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| 30 Sep 2019 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| 14 Jan 2019 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1 - 3 | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.39 | 71.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |