| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.8% | 68% | -9.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| logistic | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| Jay Clarke | Gabriele Piraino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1592 | 1446 |
| Surface Elo | 1592 | 1446 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Gabriele Piraino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Fabrizio Andaloro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Fabrizio Andaloro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Pieri, Samuele | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Gabriele Piraino | 2 - 0 | Jay Clarke |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |