| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.4% | 58% | -0.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.6% | 38.3% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Florian Broska | Milos Karol | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1538 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1538 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Sergi Perez Contri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Milos Karol | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Adrian Oetzbach | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Oleksii Krutykh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Florian Broska | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Tiago Cacao | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Florian Broska | 0 - 2 | Milos Karol |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |