| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.9% | 60% | -9.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.9% | 86% | -7.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.2% | 80% | -10.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 54% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.6% | 29.6% | 19.8% |
| xgboost | 46.4% | 29.5% | 24.0% |
| logistic | 48.6% | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| Millwall | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1617 | 1643 |
| Surface Elo | 1617 | 1643 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston North End | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | West Ham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.07 | 19.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.97 | 50.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |