| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 42.2% | 50% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.6% | 77% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.4% | 66% | -9.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 43% | +12.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.8% | 33% | +16.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 23.1% | 26.2% | 50.7% |
| xgboost | 32.2% | 25.2% | 42.6% |
| logistic | 38.6% | 28.0% | 33.4% |
| Malaga | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1568 | 1678 |
| Surface Elo | 1568 | 1678 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 13 Sep | A | Celta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Levante | 0 - 0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Real Madrid | 0 - 4 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | La Coruna | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Aug | A | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Betis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | La Coruna | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Alaves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Atlético Madrid | 2 - 2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | Santander | 2 - 2 | D |
| 01 Apr 2018 | Malaga | 1 - 0 | Villarreal |
| 05 Nov 2017 | Villarreal | 2 - 0 | Malaga |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 17 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Sep 20:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.02 | 49.5% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.91 | 25.6% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.70 | 27.0% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 17 Sep 06:15 |