| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.4% | 38% | +5.7% | |
| DC | Home or away | 73.6% | 76% | -2.0% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.5% | 52% | +4.6% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 52% | +9.7% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.3% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.0% | 31.4% | 29.6% |
| xgboost | 41.4% | 25.4% | 33.2% |
| logistic | 36.9% | 29.6% | 33.4% |
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1536 | 1534 |
| Surface Elo | 1536 | 1534 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Mazidagi Fosfat Spor | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Alanyaspor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Alanyaspor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Goztep | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Goztepe Izmir | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | H | Trabzonspor | 3 - 4 | L |
| 26 Oct | H | Trabzonspor | 3 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Corum | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Corum | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Fenerbahce | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Rizespor | 2 - 0 | Kocaelispor |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Kocaelispor | 1 - 1 | Rizespor |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.55 | 28.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.64 | 37.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.94 | 51.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |