| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.0% | 62% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.2% | 87% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.8% | 81% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 51% | +3.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.8% | 24.6% | 22.6% |
| xgboost | 59.4% | 25.6% | 15.0% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 26.4% | 16.6% |
| Wrexham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Southampton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Birmingham | 0 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Millwall | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | QPR | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Lincoln | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Watford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Wrexham | 2 - 1 | Preston |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Preston | 1 - 1 | Wrexham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.75 | 17.4% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 17 Oct 15:00 |