| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.8% | 64% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| logistic | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| Nick Hardt | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1506 | 1685 |
| Surface Elo | 1506 | 1685 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 7 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Jun 2026 | Juan Manuel La Serna | 1 - 0 | Nick Hardt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.54 | 64.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |