| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.6% | 32% | +14.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 77% | -2.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.3% | 43% | +16.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 61% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.8% | 28.5% | 37.7% |
| xgboost | 44.3% | 26.1% | 29.6% |
| logistic | 43.5% | 26.4% | 30.1% |
| Everton | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1713 | 1724 |
| Surface Elo | 1713 | 1724 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 3 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Hull | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Hull | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Ipswich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Tottenham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Reading | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bournemouth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bournemouth | 5 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Brentford | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Hull | 2 - 2 | D |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Everton | 3 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Chelsea | 2 - 0 | Everton |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Chelsea | 1 - 0 | Everton |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Everton | 0 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Chelsea | 6 - 0 | Everton |
| 10 Dec 2023 | Everton | 2 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | Everton |
| 06 Aug 2022 | Everton | 0 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 01 May 2022 | Everton | 1 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 16 Dec 2021 | Chelsea | 1 - 1 | Everton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.88 | 34.7% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |