| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.9% | 50% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.9% | 75% | +2.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.4% | 65% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 76% | -20.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.9% | 26.8% | 29.3% |
| xgboost | 49.8% | 30.0% | 20.3% |
| logistic | 50.5% | 28.1% | 21.4% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1522 | 1435 |
| Surface Elo | 1522 | 1435 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Stevenage | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Stevenage | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Wycombe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.31 | 76.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.05 | 32.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |