| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.9% | 89% | -36.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.9% | 98% | -18.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.9% | 97% | -27.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 78% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.4% | 23.8% | 18.8% |
| xgboost | 45.7% | 23.7% | 30.6% |
| logistic | 55.8% | 25.8% | 18.4% |
| Manchester City | AEK | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1946 | 1802 |
| Surface Elo | 1946 | 1802 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Ipswich | 3 - 2 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Liverpool | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Liverpool | 3 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Shakhtar D | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | OFI Crete | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | OFI Crete | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Volos NPS | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Volos NFC | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 23.13 | 4.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 11.20 | 8.9% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.13 | 88.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.28 | 78.1% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.90 | 25.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |