| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 39.2% | 43% | -4.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.8% | 80% | -6.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 52.6% | 58% | -5.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 45% | +10.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.4% | 27.4% | 40.2% |
| xgboost | 41.8% | 24.9% | 33.4% |
| logistic | 37.4% | 29.0% | 33.6% |
| Burton | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1469 | 1499 |
| Surface Elo | 1469 | 1499 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 10 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | H | AFC Rushden And Diamonds | 4 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Wycombe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Wycombe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | A | Altrincham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Mansfield | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Mansfield | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Stockport | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Stockport | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Notts County | 2 - 1 | Burton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 10 Nov 06:15 |