| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 52% | +2.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.7% | 80% | +1.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.4% | 71% | +1.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 50% | +8.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.9% | 27.9% | 21.2% |
| xgboost | 58.4% | 22.2% | 19.4% |
| logistic | 54.4% | 25.1% | 20.4% |
| Udinese | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1600 | 1569 |
| Surface Elo | 1600 | 1569 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Torino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Pogon Szczecin | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cagliari | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Inter | 3 - 5 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Lazio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Bologna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Bologna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Ac Milan | 0 - 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Monza | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Cagliari | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Feb 2026 | Lecce | 2 - 1 | Udinese |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Udinese | 3 - 2 | Lecce |
| 21 Feb 2025 | Lecce | 0 - 1 | Udinese |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Udinese | 1 - 0 | Lecce |
| 13 May 2024 | Lecce | 0 - 2 | Udinese |
| 23 Oct 2023 | Udinese | 1 - 1 | Lecce |
| 28 Apr 2023 | Lecce | 1 - 0 | Udinese |
| 04 Nov 2022 | Udinese | 1 - 1 | Lecce |
| 29 Jul 2020 | Udinese | 1 - 2 | Lecce |
| 06 Jan 2020 | Lecce | 0 - 1 | Udinese |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.28 | 23.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |