| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 39.8% | 29% | +11.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 72.7% | 76% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.1% | 39% | +14.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 55% | -1.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.7% | 29.5% | 35.9% |
| xgboost | 43.8% | 25.0% | 31.2% |
| logistic | 34.8% | 30.9% | 34.3% |
| Amorebieta | Logrones | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1457 | 1405 |
| Surface Elo | 1457 | 1405 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 891 | 1989 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | A | CD Basconia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | RS Gimnastica de Torrelavega | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | SD Gernika Club | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Rayo Cantabria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Jun | A | Mirandes | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Nov | H | CF Calamocha | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Mirandes | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Real Aviles CF | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Cultural Leonesa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Terrassa FC | 0 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 10 Nov 06:15 |