| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.6% | 51% | +2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 77.2% | 79% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 68.7% | 69% | +0.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 57% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.1% | 28.0% | 41.9% |
| xgboost | 19.9% | 18.4% | 61.7% |
| logistic | 21.6% | 26.8% | 51.6% |
| Empoli | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1406 | 1605 |
| Surface Elo | 1406 | 1605 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 19 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Modena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Modena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Arezzo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bari | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | A | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Sep | H | Sampdoria | 3 - 1 | W |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Palermo | 3 - 2 | Empoli |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Empoli | 1 - 3 | Palermo |
| 02 Feb 2018 | Empoli | 4 - 0 | Palermo |
| 09 Sep 2017 | Palermo | 3 - 3 | Empoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.97 | 50.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.76 | 56.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.99 | 50.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |