| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.8% | 65% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.9% | 88% | -2.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.5% | 83% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 63% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 66.1% | 20.6% | 13.3% |
| xgboost | 54.4% | 29.8% | 15.8% |
| logistic | 70.5% | 20.5% | 9.0% |
| York | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1663 | 1410 |
| Surface Elo | 1663 | 1410 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Swindon | 4 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Bristol Rvs | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bristol Rovers | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Tranmere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Rochdale | 4 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.50 | 18.2% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.40 | 22.7% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |