| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 66.3% | 83% | -17.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| logistic | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Fabrizio Andaloro | Jay Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1467 | 1611 |
| Surface Elo | 1467 | 1611 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Filippo Moroni | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Colasanto, Francesco Giuseppe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Emile Hudd | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar | A | Andrew Paulson | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Fabrizio Andaloro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | John Sperle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Fabrizio Andaloro | 0 - 2 | Jay Clarke |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.20 | 83.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.20 | 23.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |